Public Policy and Decision Science

This page is about the intersection of policy-making and machine learning For an overview of policy-making and decision science, please see the Wikipedia page on this topic.

When creating policies, decision-makers must often negotiate fundamental uncertainties in the underlying data and construct mathematical models to help them assess or trade off between different policy alternatives. ML can help alleviate some of this uncertainty by extracting information from satellite imagery, sensors, social media posts, policy documents, and other source and provide new techniques for working with models commonly used by decision-makers (e.g. integrated assessment models, multi-objective optimization, etc.) ML can also help retroactively, by analyzing the text of existing policies and by performing causal inference on historical data.

Generally speaking, carbon markets aim to reduce GHG emissions by setting limits on emissions and enabling the trading of emission units, which represent emission reductions. ML can help predict prices in carbon markets and analyze the main drivers of these prices to improve their efficiency. In terms of the design of market-based strategies, such as carbon tax or cap-and-trade programs, it is necessary to understand how effectively each strategy will reduce emissions, as well as how the underlying socio-technical system may be affected. ML can help assess the outcomes of market-based strategies to ensure they are effective and equitable.

Background Readings

General

• Resources for Effective Climate Decisions. (Ch. 4) Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (2010): A chapter from a report published after a series of five coordinated activities convened by the National Research Council in response to a request from Congress. Available here.
• Climate Change and Society: Approaches and Responses. (2011): a chapter from the Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society. Available here.
• Assessment and Decision-making for Climate Change: An Overview of Four Approaches (2012): The second report of the West Kootenay Climate Vulnerability and Resilience Project. Available here.
• Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change (2003): a review of the emerging perspectives of collective action and social capital. Available here.
• Social, Economic, and Ethical Concepts and Methods. (Ch. 3). (2014) : a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding the social and economic aspects of climate change. Available here.

Policy Design

• From Science to Policy: Developing Responses to Climate Change. (Ch. 12). Climate Change and Human Health - Risks and Responses. (1996): a report by the World Health Organization on the risks to human health of developing responses to climate change. Available here.
• Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations, agency and influence (2018): an article that presents an analysis that includes the perspectives and agency of multiple actors in climate change mitigation, through a case study of the UK construction sector. Available here.
• Decision Making and Climate Change Uncertainty: Setting the Foundations for Informed and Consistent Strategic Decisions. (2019): an accessible explanation of how public officials, especially in low income countries, can address today's short- term pressing needs while preparing for tomorrow's climate-related impacts, written by the Climate Change Advisor of the Government of Quito, Chile. Available here.
• Climate Change Policies (2016): A report by the European Environmental Agency on defining successful, impactful policies for climate change. Available here.

Markets and Pricing

• Market Strategies for Climate Change (2004): examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. Available here.
• The Critical Role of Markets in Climate Change Adaptation (2018): this paper summarizes and synthesizes the role of markets in facilitating climate change adaptation. It explains how market signals encourage adaptation through land markets. Available here.
• Market-based strategies. (2019): An overview prepared by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions about market-based approaches, like a carbon tax or cap-and-trade program, that can help reduce emissions at the lowest possible cost. Available here.

Community

Major conferences

• United Nations Climate Summit: a summit presenting countries' concrete, realistic plans to enhance their nationally determined contributions by 2020, in line with reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent over the next decade, and to net zero emissions by 2050.
• Bonn Climate Change Conference: hosts a wide range of events, meetings, and negotiating sessions that will set the stage for raising ambition to curb greenhouse gas emissions, accelerate resilience-building efforts, and ensure that climate policy is built on a solid foundation of the best available science and knowledge.

Major societies and organizations

• Center for Climate and Energy Solutions: an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization working to forge practical solutions to climate change.

Libraries and Tools

Given the importance of representing the impacts of decision-making and market-based strategies, interactive simulation tools and packages for multi-objective optimization are particularly useful in this application. Some of these are listed below:

• Carbon market simulation tool: demystifies how to develop and implement a carbon portfolio management strategy, and demonstrates that results are driven by design.
• Python packages for multi-objective optimization:
  • Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimization (EMOO)
  • Platypus - Multi-objective Optimization in Python: Platypus is a framework for evolutionary computing in Python with a focus on multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs), providing optimization algorithms and analysis tools for multiobjective optimization.
• Matlab package for multi-objective optimization: Matlab package for multi-objective optimization, accompanied by tutorial videos and explanations.

Data

There are several sources of data at various global, regional, and national levels, all of which are useful for modeling the impact of policies, as well as markets

• World Bank ClimateSmart data portal: focuses on the needs of practitioners working in developing countries on low-emission development and climate resilient projects.
• Environmental Treaty Status Data Set, 2012 Release (1940–2012): provides information on the status of country participation in international environmental agreements.
• Vulnerability to Climate Change Dataset: quantifies the vulnerability of 233 countries to three major effects of climate change (weather-related disasters, sea-level rise, and reduced agricultural productivity).
• CO2 “price” in European ETS: Data about the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS), coming mainly from the EU Transaction Log.
• IPCC Socio-Economic Baseline Data, v1 (1980, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 2025): dataset for the evaluation of climate change impact curated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts, v1 (1970–2004): database with observed responses to climate change for multidisciplinary studies curated by the IPCC.